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以《糖果傳奇》為例:說(shuō)說(shuō)手游公司為什么不應(yīng)該上市

以《糖果傳奇》為例:說(shuō)說(shuō)手游公司為什么不應(yīng)該上市

Cyrus Sanati 2014年08月15日
由于用戶喜新厭舊、技術(shù)迅速迭代以及準(zhǔn)入門檻低到近乎不存在,手游公司已被證明是糟糕的股權(quán)投資。

????看起來(lái),華爾街可能終于吃到了“壞糖果”——這次是一些表現(xiàn)糟糕的科技股。

????風(fēng)靡一時(shí)的手游《糖果傳奇》(Candy Crush Saga)開發(fā)商King Digital Entertainment周二宣布最近一個(gè)季度增長(zhǎng)乏力、業(yè)績(jī)平平,導(dǎo)致其尾盤股價(jià)下跌超過(guò)20%。這家手游界標(biāo)桿公司的新游戲顯然未能創(chuàng)造充足的現(xiàn)金,無(wú)法彌補(bǔ)進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)飽和期的《糖果傳奇》游戲收入的“出乎意料地”大幅下降。由于用戶喜新厭舊、技術(shù)迅速迭代以及準(zhǔn)入門檻低到近乎不存在,King以及手游行業(yè)的其他公司已被證明是糟糕的股權(quán)投資?;蛟S,現(xiàn)在是時(shí)候讓它們回到創(chuàng)業(yè)之初的硅谷車庫(kù)里去了,直到它們足夠成熟后再重返華爾街。

????過(guò)去幾年的IPO熱潮已將很多有問(wèn)題的公司引入公開市場(chǎng)。雖然還沒(méi)有一家公司的估值達(dá)到上世紀(jì)90年代末互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫時(shí)期荒謬的估值,但有一些已經(jīng)相當(dāng)接近了。在所有這些公開上市的公司中,King Digital Entertainment顯然是最草草上場(chǎng)的一家。該公司搭上了最近一輪“web 2.0”上市浪潮的便車,獲得了高估值。

????作為手游產(chǎn)品開發(fā)商,King幾乎處于科技產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的底端。該公司曾擁有爆炸式的增長(zhǎng),2013年收入較前一年增長(zhǎng)了11倍,創(chuàng)造了近5.67億美元的利潤(rùn)。但約80%的收入來(lái)自這家公司旗下的一個(gè)單一類別游戲——《糖果傳奇》。King試圖說(shuō)服投資者相信,該公司將重現(xiàn)《糖果傳奇》的成功,但沒(méi)什么人買賬。其股票價(jià)格首日上市即下跌16%。

????盡管困難重重,King作為上市公司發(fā)布的首個(gè)季度業(yè)績(jī)?nèi)杂行┕奈枞诵牡牧咙c(diǎn)。該公司在收入多樣化上取得了進(jìn)展,《糖果傳奇》占其收入的比例降至68%?;蛟S市場(chǎng)看錯(cuò)了King?它的股價(jià)大幅反彈。投資銀行紛紛設(shè)定了高高在上的目標(biāo)價(jià),并給予“買進(jìn)”評(píng)級(jí)。

????King Digital周二公布實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利,并向股東派發(fā)1.50億美元的巨額特殊股息,但股價(jià)未能達(dá)到華爾街激進(jìn)的目標(biāo)價(jià)格。該公司其他的游戲表現(xiàn)欠佳,來(lái)自《糖果傳奇》的收入也持續(xù)下降。德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)將目標(biāo)價(jià)從27美元降至12美元(該股周三盤后交易價(jià)格在14.50美元附近。)

????那么,這是因?yàn)槿A爾街期望太高太早?還是King Digital根本沒(méi)有與科技巨頭競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的實(shí)力呢?看起來(lái),兩者皆有。

????手游業(yè)尚處于嬰兒期,它能否為投資者創(chuàng)造持續(xù)收益仍有很多疑問(wèn)。這一領(lǐng)域可能有巨大的增長(zhǎng)潛力,比如亞洲的智能手機(jī)使用數(shù)量正在快速增長(zhǎng),但是那些曾經(jīng)開發(fā)出熱門游戲的公司或許無(wú)法從這些未來(lái)的增長(zhǎng)中獲得回報(bào)。市值一度達(dá)到70多億美元的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手Zynga也在試圖重現(xiàn)其《開心農(nóng)場(chǎng)》(Farmville)系列游戲的成功,結(jié)果并不順利,為此該公司股價(jià)已連續(xù)多月下跌,今年已跌去30%,較2011年12月的IPO價(jià)格下跌超過(guò)70%。

????It looks like Wall Street may have finally had its fill of bad candy—and bad tech stocks.

????King Digital Entertainment , maker of the (once) popular mobile gaming app “Candy Crush Saga,” saw its shares fall over 20% late Tuesday after the company reported sluggish growth and tepid earnings for the previous quarter. The mobile gaming kingpin’s new titles apparently failed to generate sufficient cash to cover the “unexpectedly” steep drop in revenue from its maturing Candy Crush franchise. With a fickle audience, rapidly changing technology, and almost no barriers to entry, King as well as the rest of the mobile gaming space have proven to be terrible equity investments. It may be time for them to head back to their garages in Silicon Valley and stay there until they are mature enough to come back to Wall Street.

????The recent IPO boom has brought a lot of questionable companies to the public markets in the last couple of years. While none have boasted the absurd bubble-like valuations that characterized the Internet IPO boom of the late 1990s, a few have come pretty close. Of all the companies that went public, King Digital Entertainment, was clearly among the sketchiest. It was riding the wave of other “web 2.0″ properties that had recently gone to the market and garnered strong valuations.

????King, as a maker of “mobile gaming” products, was pretty much the bottom of the tech barrel. It had explosive growth, with 2013 revenues up 11-fold over the previous year, yielding profits of around $567 million. But around 80% of that revenue came from only one of its various games—Candy Crush. King tried to sell investors on the notion that it could repeat and build on Candy Crush’s success, but few took the bait. Its stock fell 16% on its first day of trading.

????Despite the odds, King posted some encouraging profits in its first quarterly earnings as a public company. It had been able to diversify its revenue so that Candy Crush only accounted for 68% of its revenue, instead of 80%. Maybe the market misjudged King after all? Its stock price rallied. The investment banks set lofty price targets and slapped a “buy” rating on the stock.

????King Digital posted a profit on Tuesday and issued a sizable $150 million special dividend to its shareholders, but it failed to meet Wall Street’s aggressive price targets. Its other games still aren’t doing well, while revenues from Candy Crush have continued to fall. Deutsche Bank lowered its earnings target from $27 a share to $12 a share (the stock was trading around $14.50 in the after hours markets).

????So, is this a case of Wall Street simply expecting too much, too soon, or does King Digital simply not have what it takes to compete with the big boys of the tech world? It seems to be a little bit of both.

????Mobile gaming is in its infancy and there are a lot of questions about its ability to generate consistent profits for its investors. The sector may have great potential to grow, amid the proliferation of smartphones in Asia for example, but companies that have managed to produce hit games in the past may not reap the rewards of such future growth. Rival game maker Zynga , which at one point commanded a market valuation of over $7 billion, has had a hard time repeating the success of its Farmville franchise and has seen its share price tumble month after month as a result—down 30% this year and down over 70% since its IPO in December 2011.

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